Results received from this calculator are designed for comparative purposes only, and accuracy is not guaranteed.
Please contact us to address your mortgage needs.
By Mustafa Zia | November 2, 2026
Ontario now expects just 65,100 housing starts in 2027. That is 5,200 fewer than the province forecast in its March budget, according to its Fall Economic Statement released October 29.
Read that number carefully. It is a forecast, not a count of homes cancelled. But the direction is what matters for a buyer in Mississauga: the province keeps lowering how many homes it thinks will get built, while the clock on the biggest new-home incentive in years keeps ticking toward the same date.
That incentive is the enhanced HST relief on eligible new homes — up to $130,000, for agreements signed between April 1, 2026 and March 31, 2027. The Fall Economic Statement left it unchanged. The Ontario Real Estate Association is urging the government to extend it past March 31, but that is advocacy, not a decision. If you are buying new, plan on March 31 as the deadline, because that is the deadline on the books today.
Here is why those two facts belong together. A lower starts forecast means fewer new homes arriving next year, and new-home supply in the GTA is already tight where families actually want to buy. In September, GTA low-rise inventory sat at about 11 months of supply, while high-rise inventory sat at roughly 49 months. The province’s own forecast also sees resale prices falling 2.4% in 2026, then rising 1.4% in 2027, with resale activity up 7.8% next year. Put plainly: the province expects this year to stay soft, then expects buyers to come back next year — into a market building fewer homes than it planned.
That is the opposite of a reason to wait. Waiting only works if more supply is coming to push prices down. The province just told us the opposite is happening on the supply side, and the rebate that makes new homes cheaper today expires before that tighter 2027 market arrives.
A few honest caveats, because a buyer should hear them before signing anything. First, a forecast is not a promise — starts could beat it, and resale prices move with the sales mix, not just demand. Second, the rebate is not automatic on every home: it applies to eligible new homes up to $1.5 million, and you should confirm your eligibility with the builder and your lawyer before you sign. Third, the Ontario top-up portion of the rebate — up to $50,000 of the $130,000 — begins paying out in early 2027, so ask how the timing works on your closing, not just the headline amount. And fourth, do not bank on an extension. Extensions get urged every time a deadline approaches; this one has not happened.
So what should a Mississauga buyer actually do with this? Two things. First, run the numbers on a new home at the price after the rebate, not the sticker price — that is the real price, and it is the price that disappears as a category on March 31. Second, compare that number against resale honestly: resale is softer right now, and that gives you negotiating room, but resale comes with no rebate and no builder warranty, and the province expects resale activity — and prices — to pick up in 2027.
The market is not rewarding patience right now. It is rewarding buyers who buy while supply is still being built, while the rebate is still on the table, and before a forecast cut like this one turns into the tighter market it predicts.
Sources: Government of Ontario, 2026 Fall Economic Statement (released October 29, 2026); Ontario Real Estate Association statement on the Fall Economic Statement (November 2, 2026); Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) / Altus Group, GTA new home sales, September 2026.
Thinking about buying a new home in Mississauga or the GTA before the rebate deadline? Let’s run the numbers on the price after the rebate. Call (647) 892-2474.